Climate Security Concerns on the Rise
November 2, 2021
The Pentagon recently released the Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis (DCRA), saying that the risks of climate change “will continue to have worsening implications for U.S. national security.” As a result, the Pentagon plans to integrate climate change considerations at all levels, including risk analyses, strategy development, planning, modeling, simulation, and wargaming.
Climate and disinformation expert Dr. Chad Briggs is Director of Graduate Programs and Associate Professor of Public Policy at the College of Business and Public Policy. He is also internationally recognized for his expertise in climate security assessments, and the use of simulations and war games to help prepare for environmental and energy disasters.
“An abruptly changing climate is one of the greatest immediate risks to the planet, and fragile and complex northern regions like Alaska are particularly at risk,” Briggs said. “The greatest concerns are not just environmental; they are how individuals and governments should react in the face of multilayered crises.”
He describes many such upcoming climate security challenges and how nations can prepare to meet them in his 2019 book Disaster Security. But simply reading case studies and suggestions is not enough for such a complex topic. Because of this, Dr. Briggs also regularly develops complex scenarios and simulations for U.S. agencies, including the State Department and DoD. His popular graduate course on Arctic Security introduces these tools to UAA students.
“Climate security is central to Alaska and its future,” Briggs said. “Using disaster scenarios and wargames as a method to practice critical decision-making skills is a serious business.”
Wargaming and scenarios are human-driven and interactive, so others can provide suggestions or ideas and “play” through them to see what potential reactions might be, offering insight and forewarning into highly complicated situations that are often beset or muddled by political pressures or other human concerns in real time.
Forewarned is forearmed. “These big issues seem so overwhelming,” Briggs said. “But if you’re given some practical tools and you feel like you’re doing something, the risks become much more manageable.”
Scenario analysis, he said, allows for examining complex situations that involve a strong human element without having to worry about getting caught up in anxiety-producing or frightening real-world situations, often offering a window into not just how others might react to stressful, quickly changing situations but how you will as well.
“Even if it's scary and it seems overwhelming, you want people to recognize that they’ve seen something similar, that they can handle it.”
Briggs provided additional insights in two recent presentations. He appeared on the UK Pint of Science broadcast earlier this month, and in this University of Cambridge podcast on climate change in August.